October 2017 Simi Valley Real Estate Market Update

October 2017 Simi Valley home sales continued to be strong with 156 residential properties selling, out pacing the October 2016 volume of 131 properties. That’s an increase of 19.1% over October 2016 sales.

New listings for October 2017 are down at 131 new properties, compared to 138 new properties listed in October of 2016. That’s a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year.

Figure 1

The total inventory of properties for sale fell by 53 in October to 359 properties on the market. This represents 12.86% decrease from the previous month when 412 properties were on the market. Compared to October 2016 when there were 365 homes for sale, inventory has fallen by 6 representing a decrease of 1.64% year-over-year.

Figure 2

These 359 active listings represent a 2.69 month inventory. This is a 14.6% decrease from last month. Compared to October 2016 the monthly inventory was 2.87 months, which represents a 6.27% decrease in monthly inventory compared to the same time last year. Moreover, year to date the monthly inventory for 2016 was 3.11 months, which represents a 10.61% decrease in monthly inventory year-over-year.

Figure 3

From this we can see that in October 2017 there were fewer properties on the market than there were in the previous month of September as well as during the same time last year. Clearly, we have a smaller inventory of available homes. This tends to create more competition among buyers and can drive up sales prices across a market providing there are enough buyers in the market.

Another indicator that will help us to understand the current market, and more specifically tell us if there are buyers in the market is the number of days a property takes to sell, or Days on Market. When we see average days on market falling we can be confident of one or both of the following are true; either sellers are pricing their properties well which is leading to quicker sales, or there is a surplus of buyers in the market thus creating an inventory shortage thereby leading to properties selling quicker. If we see the average days on market rising the opposite is likely true; either sellers are pricing their properties too high, or there are not enough buyers to run thru the existing inventory.

Figure 4

Taking this into consideration, if we look at the average days on market and the median days on market month-to-month, we can see that there is a 24% increase in the average days on market yet no change in the median days on market (see figures 2 and 4). This would suggest that there were likely one or more properties that sold after being on the market for a considerable time, thus affecting the average, whereas the median, or middle point has remained unchanged. This suggests there are roughly the same number of buyers in the market in proportion to the number of listings available. However, if we look at the year-over-year average and median days on market we can see that these numbers are decreasing by 34% and 26% respectively, which means that properties are taking fewer days to sell than they were a year ago. And given that inventories are also down, this would suggest that there are still plenty of buyers in the market. This is great news for sellers, and a cautionary tale for buyers as they may find themselves in competition with other buyers, especially when considering the most desirable properties.

With regards to list price and sales price, we can see that month-to-month there is little change in list and sales prices. However, if we look at year-over-year we see that average and median sales prices in October decreased slightly. And year to date, we see that sales prices have risen around 5%. This may suggest that October was a good month to buy versus during the peak selling season during the summer months. Having said this, buyers may be wise to continue their home searches during the fall and winter months of 2017.

Figure 5

Finally, if we look at the data on Sold to Original List Price Ratio we can see homes selling at just under list price varying from 0.5% to 2.5% with peak prices coming in the month of May 2017, and now waning into the later part of the year.